Better Than Bad News

It was hard to put a title to this post. I don’t want to use the word hope, optimistic etc, because I’m not there yet. But the newly released Mortgage Bankers Association National Delinquency Survey for Q4 of 2009 is better than a poke in the eye! According to MBA the delinquency rate for for mortgages on one to four units fell to a seasonably adjusted 9.47% of all loans outstanding. Down 17 basis points from Q3 2009, but up 159 basis points from same quarter last year.

There are some interesting (or put you to sleep, depending if numbers interest you) pieces of information in the press release about the survey. A couple of things caught my interest. The percentages of mortgages 90 days or more, or in foreclosure set new record highs. The percentage of mortgages 30 days past due are still below the record set in Q2 1985.

What might be good news is that the loans at the 30-day delinquent stage fell from 3.79% to 3.63%. What makes this unusual is that this time would be when we see spikes up of 30-day delinquencies, due to holiday expenditures, winter heating bills, etc.  Historically, 30-day delinquencies have been a leading indicator of serious delinquencies and foreclosures.

Foreclosure rates could still climb, because those loans 90+ delinquent may not be able to correct the problem. A lot of the 90+ are in the loan modification process, and are counted as delinquent prove they can make the payments.

If the next MBA report follows this trend with 30+ delinquencies moving downward, we can start to talk about just how many months(years) it will take to get out of this mess.

If you would like specific foreclosure information for Folsom or any other area, just let me know.